Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 78027.888281 82380.328738 86730.170913 91400.447948 96269.621738 101193.281235 106545.121501
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 71042.254539 77715.444694 84569.782287 92126.407657 100213.362677 108598.230302 117938.969346
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 66003.266120 74265.264977 82936.662036 92695.614370 103351.574964 114612.714027 127391.819035
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 61769.876566 71181.587302 81241.113761 92758.937718 105546.473041 119273.184821 135086.325422
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 59081.708704 69503.844884 80819.193636 93966.730866 108770.791194 124872.331170 143655.652897
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 55855.841265 66984.985678 79244.830780 93684.010905 110153.421920 128281.492590 149670.138084
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 54109.071393 66006.571465 79282.225639 95104.762742 113356.158661 133654.851257 157840.055227
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 52251.716360 64777.812255 78925.125328 95975.459295 115850.363046 138167.963835 164999.810980
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 50110.379855 63102.554340 77948.910709 96034.280542 117327.901641 141457.916107 170717.810019
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 48044.950641 61418.755284 76873.546133 95893.235912 118500.733334 144341.486842 175928.664451
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 47144.622359 61079.176078 77342.793945 97538.842802 121745.663229 149623.758726 183940.625873
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 46262.457488 60711.241510 77736.364457 99060.305492 124822.250705 154703.570294 191729.754176
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 44924.239949 59755.456320 77406.235363 99712.438397 126883.460656 158632.228352 198240.584212
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 43302.930667 58392.146371 76531.900236 99663.403271 128072.785513 161513.649210 203515.979120
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 42020.679792 57404.591552 76076.160851 100088.982522 129809.923430 165036.351232 209561.294015
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 40625.840442 56222.443626 75332.652751 100116.959485 131027.511880 167912.297721 214821.828398
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 39904.526444 55872.832204 75606.188108 101391.980302 133771.046869 172641.007629 222346.339995
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 38498.361203 54588.103194 74655.192328 101089.648224 134525.440099 174921.703431 226879.772690
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 37984.896622 54448.864241 75145.696601 102598.933925 137539.488297 179984.292569 234846.971157
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 37243.796278 53981.246932 75191.668541 103523.913473 139809.782875 184131.100569 241703.467440
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 36168.991030 53034.347438 74586.839101 103586.384430 140968.663195 186888.402001 246841.901883
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 35056.523279 52002.493077 73840.009271 103436.535456 141834.435113 189266.239472 251505.694389
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 34778.478932 52090.375591 74555.088279 105184.649347 145134.169783 194710.258477 260032.180018